Key Takeaways
- Bybit and Block Scholes highlight weak sentiment across derivatives as Bitcoin closes below the $100K level.
- US equities erased shutdown gains by Friday, contributing to renewed pressure on crypto markets.
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Bybit released a new Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report in collaboration with Block Scholes this week, showing that bearish positioning remains dominant across crypto markets even after the end of the longest US government shutdown in history.
Equity markets initially surged on Wednesday following President Trump’s signing of legislation to reopen the government. The Dow hit a record high and other indices moved near all-time peaks. However, those gains quickly faded. By Friday, stocks had retraced most of the move and settled into a weak uptrend with little follow-through.
That shift in sentiment rippled into crypto. Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark and continued declining into Friday, now trading near $96,000. The move confirmed a breakdown below a key psychological level and added to pressure across digital assets.
Bybit’s report notes that attempts to regain ground lost during the October and November sell-offs have been repeatedly rejected. Even BTC’s short-lived bounce to $107,500 following Senate developments on Nov 10 was quickly sold off, and volatility remains elevated.
Implied volatility continues to price in downside risk, with volatility smiles skewed toward puts. Options markets reflect bearish short-term sentiment, while perpetual swap funding rates remain mixed for majors but bearish for altcoins.
Open interest in large-cap perpetuals is still down nearly 50% from early October. That decline began after BTC’s sharp reversal from its all-time high, triggering a wave of liquidations. Since then, traders have been hesitant to rebuild long positions, and the most recent price drop didn’t trigger a major liquidation event—a sign of lower leverage in the system.
