Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 11: Best Bets and Expert Picks

The New England Patriots and Jets got the week started on Thursday night, and with two teams on a bye, that leaves us with 13 games on Sunday — plus Monday Night Football. That means hundreds of NFL player props are available across the sportsbooks for your betting pleasure.

Below are 10 of my favorites, listed in no particular order.

De’Von Achane — UNDER 81.5 Rushing Yards (-114, DraftKings)

Don’t let last week’s huge performance against Buffalo’s porous run defense create false confidence. Miami has not been a strong rushing team this season, averaging around 107 yards per game — about the same number Washington allows.

The real issue: Washington’s defense ranks top five in run-stop win rate, while Miami sits bottom five. This sets up as a tougher matchup than most expect.

Kimani Vidal — UNDER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Vidal has flashed talent, but not against elite run defenses. In his lone game against a top-10 unit (Indianapolis), he produced just 20 yards on nine carries. After Houston’s passing attack exploded late last week, expect the Chargers to lean on Justin Herbert through the air.

Josh Allen — OVER 213.5 Passing Yards (-114, DraftKings)

This number feels low. Tampa Bay is allowing more than 230 passing yards per game and remains tough against the run. Allen doesn’t have star receivers, but he’s thrown for 306 and 273 yards the last two weeks. Volume plus matchup makes this an Over spot.

D’Andre Swift — OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards (-102, Caesars)

Swift has gone over 80 rushing yards in three of his last four games, including two 100-yard outings. Minnesota’s defense is giving up 125 yards per game on the ground, making this a favorable matchup for another productive day.

Jameis Winston — OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110, BetMGM)

Winston games usually go one of two ways: electric or turnover-filled. Either way, Green Bay’s run defense likely forces the Giants to air it out. With a game script pushing New York toward the pass, this sets up for high volume.

Tony Pollard — UNDER 40.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Tennessee ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing offense, but more importantly, Houston owns the league’s second-best run defense (90.3 ypg allowed). The Texans should control Pollard and limit his efficiency all afternoon.

Rico Dowdle — OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards (-114, DraftKings)

Dowdle was bottled up last week by the Saints (18 carries, 53 yards), but Carolina’s offense thrives when he’s producing. The Falcons rank among the league’s worst run defenses, allowing 146.5 yards per game. This is a classic bounce-back spot.

Ja’Marr Chase — OVER 93.5 Receiving Yards (-114, Caesars)

Chase torched Pittsburgh for 161 yards in their previous meeting. Joe Flacco has consistently leaned on him, targeting Chase at least 10 times in every game except last week — when he still posted 6 catches for 111 yards. With Flacco under center, Chase’s floor remains sky-high.

Brock Purdy — UNDER 255.5 Passing Yards (-111, DraftKings)

Purdy returns from injury this week, and while the 49ers have thrived through the air under Mac Jones, San Francisco won’t need to force the passing game. Christian McCaffrey can take on a heavy workload.

Arizona has also kept recent opponents in check, holding four straight quarterbacks under 255 yards.

Puka Nacua — OVER 87.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

With two elite passing offenses facing off, both teams should feed their top receivers. Nacua has been quiet by his standards recently, but a division matchup with plenty of projected passing volume sets him up for a bounce-back performance.