Bitcoin Faces More Downside as Model Points to $74K Bear-Market Floor

New model flags $87K and $74K as key BTC downside targets, both now within reach based on on-chain activity.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $94,000 on Friday, reaching its lowest point since early May and erasing over $1 trillion from the total crypto market valuation since October.

This sharp drop has now led investors to question the depth of the current downturn, with a new analytical model suggesting a potential bear market floor of $74,000.

Market Under Pressure

Market technician Axel Adler Jr. said earlier today that his valuation model identifies two major downside markers: $87,000 and $74,000. He described these levels as the most important zones to watch during this phase, arguing that on-chain activity now places both thresholds firmly within reach.

Fellow analyst Egrag Crypto compared the current market rhythm to patterns seen in 2017. He pointed out that Bitcoin is completing its seventh dip of the cycle and noted that in both cycles, declines became smaller before a sharp climb. Still, that view clashes with the near-term caution shown by others who believe the flagship cryptocurrency must first settle after the latest wave of selling.

Meanwhile, Rekt Capital warned that BTC needs a weekly close above the 50-week EMA to preserve a positive long-term structure. Losing that mark would raise the risk of a broader downturn. The concern is reinforced by comments from experts such as Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, who said she reduced her own position after Bitcoin fell below $97,000, her predefined exit point.

The downturn triggered substantial liquidations, with data showing $1.2 billion in leveraged trading positions were eliminated in 24 hours, affecting over 240,000 traders. The single largest liquidation occurred on the HTX exchange, valued at $44 million.

Divergent Views on the Road Ahead

Today’s decline comes after a week of steady pressure, with Bitcoin’s price hovering around $95,400 at the time of this writing, representing a 7% fall in 24 hours and a 13% decrease over the past two weeks, according to CoinGecko. The broader market also followed, with Ethereum down by about 11% and numerous altcoins recording double-digit losses.

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Since Bitcoin’s rejection at $107,000, a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows has emerged. Furthermore, on-chain charts show dense activity around $95,900, but thin support between $95,000 and $82,000, raising the possibility of a swift move if the current floor breaks.

Broader factors are also shaping sentiment. There have been persistent liquidity challenges, with posts earlier today citing everything from retail exhaustion to capital shifting toward AI-related stocks.

For now, traders are watching the same thresholds: $95,000, $87,000, and $74,000. Whether the market stabilizes or slides further may become clear in the coming days, as volatility remains elevated and confidence continues to fluctuate.