Weekly Chartstopper: December 5, 2025

This Week

This week saw mixed data that mostly supported a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next Wednesday.

1. Labor market data were weak for November. ADP showed 32,000 private sector job losses, while the employment subindexes in the Manufacturing and Services PMIs stayed in contraction for 10 and 6 months straight, respectively.
2. Core PCE inflation slowed for the first time since April, easing to 2.8% YoY in September from 2.9%, as softer core services inflation more than offset an increase in core goods inflation to a 2¼-year high.
3. Activity data were soft, too, with real consumer spending and manufacturing output both flat in September.

So, market odds for a rate cut next week continue to hover above 85%.

With a rate cut looking more likely, the Nasdaq-100® ended the week up +1% (blue line), but 10-year Treasury yields were up over 10 basis points to 4.15% (black line), partly driven by Japan’s potential rate hike.

Next Week

Here are five events I’m watching next week:

1. Fed decision, press conference and Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday
2. Q3 Employment Cost Index (Fed’s preferred wage metric) on Wednesday
3. October JOLTS Job Openings, Hires, Quits, and Layoffs on Tuesday
4. Q3 Productivity Growth on Tuesday
5. November NFIB Small Business Optimism on Tuesday