This Week
This was one of those weeks we’ve seen on occasion in the last year (and especially since late October) where markets worry about artificial intelligence (AI). There were two flavors of concern:
- AI as disruptor: Anthropic’s new AI legal tool drove a selloff (especially) in software (including private markets) over fears AI will disrupt their businesses.
- AI is EXPENSIVE: GOOG announced plans to double its capex in 2026 to $175-$185 billion, while AMZN plans to boost capex in 2026 nearly 60% to $200 billion, renewing worries about the potential profitability of AI.
Aside from AI, there were also three negative(ish) labor market reports (all with caveats):
- ADP showed the private sector added fewer jobs (+22,000) than expected in January (+45,000), but revised monthly gains have improved since last spring and stabilized at low levels.
- Initial claims rose (231,000) much more than expected (212,000), but this may be partly due to winter storm Fern and unusually cold weather.
- JOLTS job openings came in 700,000 lower than expected, but this doesn’t match private data like Indeed, and the hiring rate rose, while the layoff rate was steady at very low levels.
So, after a bounce today, software stocks are down 9% for the week, the Nasdaq-100® is down 2% (blue line), and 10-year Treasury yields are down ~5bp to 4.2% (black line).
Next Week
Here are 5 events I’m watching next week:
- January nonfarm jobs report on Wednesday
- January CPI report on Friday
- December retail sales on Tuesday
- Q4 employment cost index on Tuesday
- January NFIB small business optimism on Tuesday
