This Week
This time a week ago, the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open.” By Saturday, it was closed again (and has remained that way). But there were some positive developments this week:
Still, prediction market odds for a peace deal by the end of April have fallen to about 10% now from around 60% a week ago, which helps explain why Brent oil prices are up to $105 per barrel from $85 a week ago.
But that’s not all for this week:
- U.S. economic data have remained resilient despite the conflict.
- Retail sales saw broad-based gains in March, rising +0.6% month-over-month (ex. gas stations).
- Preliminary April PMIs for Manufacturing (54.0) and Services (51.3) both rose more than expected and were both in expansion (over 50).
- Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh gets closer to confirmation.
- Nasdaq-100® on pace for 24% YoY earnings growth in Q1.
- TSLA beat, seeing 77% YoY earnings growth (though it sold off after announcing $25 billion in capex this year).
- INTC beat, seeing 157% YoY earnings growth, and raised guidance.
So, between strong earnings and a resilient economy, the Nasdaq-100® rose 2% this week to a new record high, while 10-year Treasury yields were up ~5bp to 4.3%.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
- Tuesday: Consumer Confidence (April)
- Wednesday: Fed decision, GOOG earnings, MSFT earnings, AMZN earnings, META earnings
- Thursday: Real GDP (Q1), PCE inflation and spending (March), Employment Cost Index (Q1), AAPL earnings
- Friday: ISM & S&P Manufacturing PMIs (April)
